Population Growth in Pavis and Pavis County

[pachristian]

Has anyone out there done a write up on the increase in population of both Pavis and Pavis county? Particularly during the time period of 1602 to 1625? (I'm lookin' at you, David Scott), My game is set in Pavis in that timeframe. Population growth affects almost everything; job availability, prices, cost of housing, social attitudes towards immigrants and so on. I like being able to provide that kind of detail as background to my players. I think it makes the city seem more 'alive'. But it's not just the city that's affected; many of the immigrants will not come to the city, but will want to farm in the river valley. 

Duke Dorasor founded Pavis outside the walls in 1550. The walls around this small city (as distinct from the walls of Pavis) encompass ~28 hectares (Pavis, Chaosium, 1982). Medieval cities had an average population density of ~150 people per hectare. Did the Duke plan for a population of about 4,000 people? 

[g33k]

2 hours ago, pachristian said:

Has anyone out there done a write up on the increase in population of both Pavis and Pavis county? Particularly during the time period of 1602 to 1625? (I'm lookin' at you, David Scott), My game is set in Pavis in that timeframe. Population growth affects almost everything; job availability, prices, cost of housing, social attitudes towards immigrants and so on. I like being able to provide that kind of detail as background to my players. I think it makes the city seem more 'alive'. But it's not just the city that's affected; many of the immigrants will not come to the city, but will want to farm in the river valley. 

Duke Dorasor founded Pavis outside the walls in 1550. The walls around this small city (as distinct from the walls of Pavis) encompass ~28 hectares (Pavis, Chaosium, 1982). Medieval cities had an average population density of ~150 people per hectare. Did the Duke plan for a population of about 4,000 people? 

I'd suspect @MOB's Sun Country stuff would be more specifically relevant than David's Prax stuff.  I could be wrong, of course...  🤡

[MOB]

21 hours ago, g33k said:

I'd suspect @MOB's Sun Country stuff would be more specifically relevant than David's Prax stuff.  I could be wrong, of course...  🤡

There were significant population rises in the whole River of Cradles valley from 1610 onwards with the peace and prosperity fostered by the Lunar conquest ("what did the Lunars ever do for us?"). These newcomers included settlers from Sartar, Tarsh and the wider Lunar Empire (some of them forced relocations). Some brought their professions to New Pavis and other towns and settlements. Many others occupied previously fallow or marginal lands in Pavis County and Sun County, or pioneered farming in the Grantlands. 

While this may have raised the population by more than 50%, any such gains were wiped out by the vicissitudes of the Great Winter and its aftermath, and then the expulsion of the Lunars from the region following Moonbroth II and the conquest of Pavis by Argrath White Bull. These are not happy times:

Quote

When the Lunar Governor Sor Eel was recalled to Dragon Pass most of the hungry army went with him, having requisitioned all the food they could lay their hands on. Count Solanthos rebuffed Sor Eel’s attempts at a levy in Sun County, but most of Pavis County and virtually all of the Grantlands were picked clean, causing great suffering.

Refugees from the countryside fled the towns, compounding the problems for the authorities. The Sun Dome Temple was inundated with hungry Grantlanders seeking sanctuary, who by custom could not be turned away. In Pavis, whereas before the Teelo Norri kitchen welcomed all comers, the new Lunar governor Halcyon Var Enkorth insisted those seeking food relief must prove their names were recorded in the paper lists. Even then they only received a tiny millet cake that seemed to be mostly sawdust and ash, though it was said the governor had brought tremendous quantities of food with him from the Heartlands. Certainly Halcyon and his entourage never stopped looking sleek and satisfied. Those refugees who made it to Corflu were bluntly informed by the Lunar garrison that they had no food to spare, forcing many in desperation to take passage with the Vadeli, the only seafarers to visit the port during the Windstop.

Fortunately, by now the nomad allies of Pavis and the Sun Dome were bringing in some provisions from the Wastes, though they refused to bring their herds back within reach of the dead air. But this was still not enough food to stave off impending mass starvation.

Indeed, during the Great Winter the Sacred Time rites to renew the world utterly failed. At the Sun Dome Temple, evil spirits assailed the assembled worshippers, and in horror they realized some in the crowd were actually the undead of Nontraya, those who had already died of hunger. Meanwhile, out of the Great Bog came swarms of locusts, both normal-sized and giant. With them came gangs of ravenous wild trollkin, some even riding the huge flying insects. They swept through the farmlands, stripping all the vegetation in their path. In their wake came a plague of famished traskars and cliff toads, driven from their usual lairs by hunger.

The Great Winter was followed by a massive flood down through the valley, as the entire spring melt came downstream at once, wreaking destruction from the Boathouse Ruins as far as the Great Bog. The wreaks further misery, but brought Zola Fel's gift of a thick layer of fertile silt. Unfortunately, it was too late in the year for planting, so the hungry times continued, though the farmers all agreed that the next planting season offered incredible promise.

After three difficult years of misery and privation things would finally be looking up again. The farmers of the Cradle Valley once again enjoyed a bumper harvest, but Governor Halcyon’s insatiable appetite to enrich himself was continually vexed by his superiors’ relentless demands for men, beasts, equipment and slaves, all needed for the Reaching Moon Temple project in Dragon Pass. And though the Armistice of Prax forbade attacks on settled territory, Sor Eel’s abrupt departure with most of the Lunar garrison during the Great Winter tempted increasing numbers of nomad bands to raid along the borders. 

Even before the Great Winter the Grantlanders had led a precarious existence, and since then had suffered at the hands of the governor’s pitiless tax gatherers. An increased reliance on mercenaries backfired when Halcyon var Enkorth reneged on paying them what they thought their due. Then comes Moonbroth II and the expulsion of the Lunars from Prax. Any Lunars not quick enough to flee or change allegiance are massacred or enslaved, and the Grantlands are wiped from the map:

Quote

The Fate of the Grantlands

Although Nomad outriders swept through the Grantlands on their way to Moonbroth in 1624, Raus of Rone, Duke of Weis Domain, prayed the Lunar forces would be able to defeat them as soundly as they had done fourteen years earlier. These hopes were soundly shattered on news of the Lunar rout. Many of his settlers began fleeing – either upriver to Sun County or downriver to the port of Corflu – even before they had heard that Pavis too had fallen.

With the Armistice of Prax now broken, the Duke was realistic enough to know that without the Lunar army the Grantlands were completely defenseless. Raus gathered as many of his remaining people together as he could to make their escape before the nomad onslaught. He quickly assembled together a large flotilla, comprising riverboats, barges, newtling rafts (and just about anything else that could float) and set off for Corflu and safety. Behind them, his proud little capital of Ronegarth and the settlements around it burned.

Many times the nomads sorely harassed the convoy, but mercifully the river was high and fast at that time of the year. The adroit water skills of their newtling river guides also aided the passage; Raus’ patient fostering of cordial relations with the formerly-hostile Five Eyes Temple proved worthwhile in the end.

With better hope of plunder back upriver, the nomad pursuit gradually tapered off. After a final failed assault near Bilos Gap, the flotilla was unmolested for the remainder of the journey. From Corflu, the refugees dispersed. Raus presumably also took ship for parts unknown (he was certainly not there when the port was sacked by the Wolf Pirates later that year).

(cribbed from The Great Winter and Time of Two Counts, 1621-1627)

I also believe @Jeff had some notes on the Great Winter and what it did to all the populations affected by it (cut them all by about 25% if I recall correctly); I just can't find it though.

Edited December 20, 2019 by MOB

[David Scott]

23 hours ago, pachristian said:

Has anyone out there done a write up on the increase in population of both Pavis and Pavis county? Particularly during the time period of 1602 to 1625? (I'm lookin' at you, David Scott), My game is set in Pavis in that timeframe. Population growth affects almost everything; job availability, prices, cost of housing, social attitudes towards immigrants and so on. I like being able to provide that kind of detail as background to my players. I think it makes the city seem more 'alive'. But it's not just the city that's affected; many of the immigrants will not come to the city, but will want to farm in the river valley. 

Duke Dorasor founded Pavis outside the walls in 1550. The walls around this small city (as distinct from the walls of Pavis) encompass ~28 hectares (Pavis, Chaosium, 1982). Medieval cities had an average population density of ~150 people per hectare. Did the Duke plan for a population of about 4,000 people? 

No, I only did the nomads, but 

1621 5000 (Pavis GtA)

1622 4000 (Windstop - fully inside area) 

1623 4025 (recovery assuming growth rate of 0.0063)

1624 4050 (recovery assuming growth rate of 0.0063)

1625 3645 Moonbroth II & Siege.

if you want to play with Gloranthan growth rates, you can extrapolate using http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php. Gloranthan growth rates are much lower than RW ones

if you use current human figures - 

1623 4050 recovery

1624 4100 recovery

1625 3690 Moonbroth II & Siege.

as usual Your Gloranthan Population Growth Figures may Vary.

Edited December 20, 2019 by David Scott