styopa Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not really RQ specific, although it translates pretty easily to d100, obviously. I found this delightful table from a CIA document on intel analysis: what do people perceive words like "probably" to actually mean as %? Interestingly, things like probably and probably-not are NOT mirror-images of each other. Source https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psullie Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 who's the optimist that gave Chances Are Slight 45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, styopa said: Not really RQ specific, although it translates pretty easily to d100, obviously. I found this delightful table from a CIA document on intel analysis: what do people perceive words like "probably" to actually mean as %? Interestingly, things like probably and probably-not are NOT mirror-images of each other. Source https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html Most interesting thing I have seen on the forum in some time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Scott Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Psullie said: who's the optimist that gave Chances Are Slight 45% Maybe the same person who gave probable 25% Quote ----- Search the Glorantha Resource Site: https://wellofdaliath.chaosium.com. Search the Glorantha mailing list archives: https://glorantha.steff.in/digests/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.