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Discussing probability verbally as a DM


styopa

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Not really RQ specific, although it translates pretty easily to d100, obviously.

I found this delightful table from a CIA document on intel analysis: what do people perceive words like "probably" to actually mean as %?

Probably-e1515191856526.gif?zoom=1.25&re

Interestingly, things like probably and probably-not are NOT mirror-images of each other.

Source https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, styopa said:

Not really RQ specific, although it translates pretty easily to d100, obviously.

I found this delightful table from a CIA document on intel analysis: what do people perceive words like "probably" to actually mean as %?

Probably-e1515191856526.gif?zoom=1.25&re

Interestingly, things like probably and probably-not are NOT mirror-images of each other.

Source https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html

 

 

 

Most interesting thing I have seen on the forum in some time!

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