M Helsdon

4 hours ago, metcalph said:

You could have a moon-boat or two in the caravan (usually tethered to the pack beasts) but from time to time made to scout the surrounding lands.

Not really: outside the Glowline, Moon Boats are unable to move during the Dying or Black Phases of the Moon. So the entire caravan would have to halt or split on those days. Not a wise thing to do in Pent.

18 minutes ago, Jon Hunter said:

They sound quite english

They do, in translation. But all are derived from ancient sources.

Aelianus explains why the orders are expressed in 'reverse' order (chapter 51 of his Tactics) as in 'to the pike, face' instead of 'face to the pike'. In the latter, soldiers will start to obey the order as soon as they hear it, but some will start to face in one direction, others the opposite direction. It doesn't matter if the soldiers are using spears, pikes, or muskets, an entirely different language - the logic remains the same. And, of course, Aelianus became necessary reading in the age of pike and musket, so his methods have a direct carry forward to the present.

The following is derived from reading Aelianus and Asclepiodotus: even in translation the meanings aren't always apparent, despite the drawings they helpfully provided. As such, even though modified for Glorantha, some of my interpretations are probably wrong.

This assumes a Pelorian phalanx, with some of the counter-march orders arbitrarily associated with various gods or emperors.

A phalanx requires drill and discipline to function, and is capable of performing numerous maneuvers upon command. Commands are given by voice, by trumpet or by the movement of the standard, or a combination of these.

The movement of a phalanx on the battlefield performing precise exercises can intimidate and cower the enemy: a thousand or more glinting spearheads moving in unison to a common purpose will overawe a foe, lowering their morale before a blow has been struck. With the sound of a thousand or more men marching together the effect may daunt even the bravest barbarian.

A number of Pelorian phalanx drill commands are given below.

Attention!	Await order about to be issued.
To arms!	Gather weapons and shield, shield resting against knees, spear vertical.
Stand to your arms!	Face front, shield in front of body, spear vertical.
Raise spears!	Spear held upright, base off the ground.
Front ranks! Lower spears!	Front ranks lower spears to the horizontal attack position.
Fall in!	Gather in formation.
Fall out!	Drop out of formation.
Mark distances!	Form the correct distance from soldiers in front and to the sides.
Form files!	Files form a straight line.
Form ranks!	Files maintain a straight line from flank to flank.
Dress files!	Straighten the files.
Dress ranks!	Straighten the ranks.
Eyes front!	Look to the front.
Leaders, order your files!	File-leaders ensure their file is in proper order and spacing.
Take the first distance!	File-leaders stop, defining the first distance.
March!	March forward.
Advance!	Advance to contact enemy.
Halt!	Halt.
The depth, double!	Close order to open order: file merges into the file beside it.
The width, double!	Open order to close order: rear file moves forward to the left to fill the gap between two forward files.
Shields lock!	Adopt close order.
About-face!	Fully turn to face in the opposite direction.
To the pike, face!	Turn right.
To the pike, wheel!	All soldiers in the formation turn to the right.
To the shield, face!	Turn left.
To the shield, wheel!	All soldiers in the formation turn to the left.
As you were!	Disregard the previous order and return to the most recent order.
Daxdarius File Counter-march!	Counter-march by file: formation halts, file-leader about-faces to face in the opposite direction and steps into the space between the files; the file advances past them with each member wheeling about, stepping into position. Once complete the formation is facing in the opposite direction to its initial orientation and positioned ahead of its original position.
Polaris File Counter-march!	Counter-march by file: formation halts, the men in each file about face. The file-leaders are now at the rear of the formation. The formation occupies the same location it did prior to the order.
Khordavus File Counter-march!	Counter-march by file: formation halts, the file leader about-faces, steps into the space between files and moves down between his file and the next; as each soldier in the file is passed they wheel about and follow the file-leader. Once complete the formation is facing in the opposite direction to its initial orientation and positioned behind its original position.
Daxdarius Rank Counter-march!	Counter-march by rank: formation halts, and counter-march commences at the wing closest to the enemy. The soldier at the end of each rank steps into the space between the ranks; their original rank advances past them with each member wheeling about, stepping into position beside the previous soldier. Once complete the formation is positioned beside its original position, and closer to the enemy.
Polaris Rank Counter-march!	Counter-march by rank: formation halts, and the counter-march commences with the soldier at the end of each rank stepping into the space between the ranks and moving along between the files, followed by the rest of the rank until the last soldier has stepped back. The phalanx files are now in the reverse order.
Khordavus Rank Counter-march!	Counter-march by rank: formation halts and countermarch commences on the wing furthest from the enemy. The soldier at the end of the rank steps into the space between the ranks and moves down between the files; as each soldier in the rank is passed they follow the rank-leader. Once complete the formation is positioned beside its original position, and further from the enemy.

 

33 minutes ago, Ian Cooper said:

The horse-collar is unlikely in a bronze age setting, it's much more likely that we have the yoke or a throat-girth harness. The former is for oxen, slow at 10 miles a day, and two oxen pulling a cart carry about 1000lbs the same as two pack mules. A throat girth-harness is inefficient and has a limit for two horses of about 1100lbs, about the same as two pack mules. After the horse-collar is invented a horse can pull about 2500lbs, which allows greater efficiency than a pack animal.

In addition, you are still really restricted to roads (if you don't like fixing broken wagons), and low gradients, even when you do opt for a cart.

Generally, the ox-cart was used by the farmer, who also used it for his plow team, to take goods to market. Otherwise in this era, you use pack animals, such as mules, for long-distance cargo if you couldn't go by water. Water was always the best choice, if you had it.

Concur.

Something I've been writing for my War in Glorantha project may be useful:

Logistics: Supply Caravans

An army train typically consists of at least a hundred wagons, each pulled by eight mules or a team of oxen and loaded with food, fodder for the troops and animals, and several wagons carrying military supplies – replacement weapons and armor. Some carry the regimental payroll in locked bronze strongboxes.

A garrison supply caravan tends to be smaller – around ten wagons, and is accompanied by an armed guard. A complement for ten wagons is twenty muleskinners, a scribe and caravan master (often a regimental quartermaster) and several files of soldiers, depending on the perceived risk of ambush. Sections of cavalry may be added to supplement the protection of the convoy.

Each wagon carries an average load of 1100-1200 lbs. of food or equipment.

A two-wheeled cart can carry 600-800 lbs.

While the use of oxen allows armies to move larger loads, it slows the rate of movement to two miles an hour for five hours before the animals become exhausted, and then on a good road. However, oxen can subsist on a diet of grass.

Wagons generate their own logistical burdens: drivers, and craftsmen to repair them, who in turn require tools and lumber, all of which further increase the logistics load on the army.

Beyond the network of reliable roads, mule and donkey trains are employed. An army train would number six to eight hundred mules.

A garrison supply caravan reliant on mules usually consists of at least forty mules, five muleskinners, three mounted officers and two files of soldiers. Lunar Deer may replace some of the mules as meat-on-the hoof, being slaughtered at the end of the journey.

A mule supply caravan carries approximately 5200 lbs. of food and other supplies.

Five horses or mules can carry the load of a single ox-cart and travel at around four miles an hour for eight hours, on a good road.

Over very rough terrain bearers may be employed instead, often slaves. A human bearer in good health can carry 60-80 pounds for ten to fifteen miles in a day, so a caravan reliant on bearers requires at least eighty and often a hundred, to allow for loses along the way. However, if the slaves must be shackled, then travel will be slower, with the bearers consuming more of the supplies they carry.

Navigable rivers provide an often faster alternative. A barge can carry far more than a wagon.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Most of the above is derived from reading about Greek and Roman logistics, plus a little from the supply caravans in Griffin Mountain.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Patrick said:

Mmmm, that triggers an interesting question: what are Pentan bows made of?

Wood, sinew, horn, glue. A composite bow requires far less wood than a wheel.

3 hours ago, jajagappa said:

The problem with wagons across Pent is wheel breakage.  There's no trees to replace them with and far too many places where they'd break.  Much better to rely solely on pack animals for this caravan.

Over rough ground, as there are only tracks across Pent, wagons are going to be far slower than pack animals, probably moving at half the speed or less.

2 hours ago, David Scott said:

Maybe, my info is unpublished so Sartar is correct.

Canon can change...

On ‎7‎/‎28‎/‎2016 at 4:46 PM, David Scott said:

Quote

Potor Clan, Wind Khan Khardaziel Blackwind (Cousin to Yazurkial's wife) of the High Llama Tribe leading 120 Warriors, with Wind Khan Bistungji (Kin to Yazurkial) of the High Llama Tribe leading 120 Warriors, Wind Khan Lower Farangli (Son of Bistungji) of the High Llama Tribe leading 120 Warriors and Wind Khan (Sister of Khardaziel) of the High Llama Tribe leading 120 Warriors.

High Llama Warriors. Heavy Cavalry. Leather Armor. Lance or spear, javelin, axe or sword, shield. Morale: Veteran.

Looking at Sartar: Kingdom of Heroes, page 231, the Potor are described as a Pol-Joni clan, formed from refugees of the Dundealos tribe. Am wondering if canon has changed?

9 minutes ago, Steve said:

You could publish it via Chaosium/Moon Design, e.g. on their website? Although of course you may choose not to do that. It just sounds very interesting and useful.

I've posted small snippets here.

2 hours ago, Evilroddy said:

So, does anyone have any ideas about the other questions in my OP?

Yara Aranis isn't worshipped by troops, except those assigned to or coming from the Temples of the Reaching Moon, so there should be very few of her cultists likely to travel beyond the borders of the empire.

Current contents - in the process of being expanded, reorganized:

Contents

Introduction. 7

Sources. 7

Primary Sources. 7

Secondary Sources. 7

A Note on Terminology. 7

 

Gloranthan Warfare. 8

Troop Types. 8

Light Infantry. 9

Heavy Infantry. 9

Light Cavalry. 9

Heavy Cavalry. 9

Chariots. 9

Artillery. 9

Vexillae. 9

Flier. 9

Magical 9

Heroes. 10

 

Weapons and Armor. 10

Armor. 10

Animal Armor. 11

Weapons. 11

Lottery Swords. 12

Shields. 13

Runes, Weapons and Shields. 14

Helmet and Shield Decoration. 14

Masks. 15

Materials. 15

 

Unit Organization. 17

Militia. 17

Training. 17

Warband. 17

Mercenaries. 17

Equipment. 18

Training. 18

Terms of Service. 18

Regiments. 19

The Standard. 19

Composition. 20

Training. 20

Terms of Service. 21

Rates of Pay. 21

Regimental Rivalry. 22

 

Order of Battle. 23

Formations. 23

Shield-wall 23

Boar’s Head. 24

Components of a Shield-wall 24

Phalanx. 25

Schiltron. 26

Components of a Phalanx. 27

Cavalry Formations. 27

Line. 27

Wedge. 27

Rhombus. 27

The Charge. 28

Stand-off Attack. 28

Shock Attack. 28

 

Types of Cavalry. 28

Troop Types. 29

Infantry. 29

Cavalry. 29

Riding Animals. 30

Chariots. 32

Vexillae. 33

Artillery. 33

Heroes. 34

Fliers. 34

 

Warfare. 36

Pelorian Warfare. 36

Pelanda. 37

Dara Happa. 37

Carmania. 39

Lunar Empire. 40

Barbarian Belt. 42

Pentan Warfare. 43

Grazelander Warfare. 43

Orlanthi Warfare. 44

Praxian Warfare. 46

Duels and Individual Combat. 46

The Orlanthi Duel 47

The Humakt Duel 47

The Yanafal Tarnils Duel 48

The Yelmalion Duel 48

Combat Games. 48

Gladiatorial Contests. 48

Chariot Racing. 48

Dara Happan Races. 48

Shield Push. 49

Treatment of Prisoners. 49

 

Transport and Mobility. 51

The Campaign Year. 51

Sea Season. 51

Fire Season. 51

Earth Season. 51

Dark Season. 52

Storm Season. 52

Sacred Time. 52

Roads and Warfare. 52

Rivers and Warfare. 55

Terrain. 56

Movement Rates. 56

 

Fortifications and Siege Warfare. 59

Siege Weapons. 59

Dwarven Weaponry. 60

Elementals. 60

Magic. 61

Fortifications. 61

Walls. 61

Bastions. 66

Towers. 66

Posterns. 67

Gates. 67

Guardian Spirits. 69

Magic. 69

Other Defences. 70

Temple Defenses. 70

 

Warfare and Religion. 72

Magic. 72

Wyters and Patron Deities. 72

Magical Regiments. 72

The Runes. 73

Aspects. 74

War Gods. 74

Cavalry Gods. 76

Chariot Gods. 76

War Gods of the Lunar Empire. 76

Hastatus. 77

Hon-eel 77

Humakt. 77

Hwarin Dalthippa. 77

Kastok, Cavalry God. 77

Polaris, War God. 77

Saggitus. 78

Shargash, God of Destruction. 78

Urvairinus, Army God. 78

Yanafal Tarnils. 78

Yara Aranis. 79

Yelmalio. 79

War Gods of Saird. 79

War Gods of Tarsh. 79

War Gods of Sartar. 80

Babeester Gor. 80

Humakt. 80

Maran Gor. 80

Orlanth Adventurous. 80

Orlanth Thunderous. 81

Storm Bull 81

Yelmalio. 81

 

Plates. 82

 

Armies of Central Genertela. 87

Lunar Army. 87

Organization. 88

Command Standards. 88

Lunar Headquarters. 89

Lunar Army Corps. 89

Miscellaneous Titles. 89

Lunar Regiment Organization. 90

College of Magic. 91

Imperial Bodyguard. 92

Heartland Corps. 93

The Ten Wall Phalanxes. 93

Daxdarian Phalanxes. 94

Line Regiments. 94

Carmania. 95

Auxiliaries. 95

Eol 95

Hungry Plateau. 95

Char-un. 95

Lunar Allies. 96

Cavalry Corps. 96

Provincial Army. 96

Provincial Army Organization. 96

The Lunar Provinces. 97

Sartar Free Army. 98

Sartar Regiment Organization. 99

Orlanthi Standards. 100

Humakt’s Raven Banner. 100

Battle Banner of the EWF. 100

Sartar Magical Union. 100

Sartar Free Army. 101

The Sartar Royal Guard. 102

Sartar City Militia. 102

The Barbarian Horde. 102

Independents. 102

The Agimori of Prax. 102

Beastmen. 103

The Black Horse Troop. 103

Cragspider and her Allies. 103

Dragonewts. 103

Giants. 104

Grazeland Pony Breeders. 104

The Holy Country. 104

Calandraland. 105

Ditali 105

Esrolia. 105

God Forgot. 106

Heortland. 106

Shadow Plateau. 106

The Islands. 106

Mercenaries in Pavis. 106

The Pol-Joni 107

Praxian Animal Nomads. 107

Bison Tribe. 108

High Llama Tribe. 108

Impala Tribe. 108

Rhinoceros Tribe. 108

Sable Tribe. 108

Unicorn Tribe. 108

Zebra Tribe. 109

Queendom of Jab. 109

Sun Dome Temples. 109

Yelmalion Regiments. 110

Mo Baustra. 111

Vanntar. 112

Alda-Chur. 112

Tarsh Exiles. 112

The Telmori 113

Tusk Riders. 113

 

Hero Wars Army Lists. 114

Unit Descriptions. 114

Morale. 114

Lunar Army List. 114

Lunar Headquarters. 114

College of Magic. 115

Sister’s Army. 116

Imperial Bodyguard. 116

Heartland Corps. 117

Heavy Infantry. 117

Light Infantry. 119

Cavalry Corps. 121

Heavy Cavalry. 121

Light Cavalry. 123

Chariots. 123

Provincial Army. 124

Aggar. 124

Holay. 124

Tarsh. 125

Vanch. 127

Carmania. 127

Sartar Free Army List. 127

Sartar Headquarters. 127

Sartar Magical Union. 128

Sartar Free Army. 131

Heavy Cavalry. 131

Light Cavalry. 132

Heavy Infantry. 132

Light Infantry. 133

Sartar City Militia. 133

Barbarian Horde. 134

Independents. 136

The Agimori of Prax. 136

Beastmen. 136

The Black Horse Troop. 137

Cragspider and her Allies. 138

Delecti 139

Dragonewts. 140

The Dwarf of Dwarf Mine. 141

Giants. 141

Grazeland Pony Breeders. 142

Mercenaries in Pavis. 143

Queendom of Jab. 143

Sun Dome Templars. 144

Unicorn Tribe. 144

Tarsh Exiles. 145

Tusk Riders. 146

 

Appendices. 147

Sun Dome Temples. 147

The First Age. 147

The Second Age. 148

The Third Age. 150

The Great Harpoon. 151

The History of the Harpoon. 151

Recent History. 151

The Tribes of Sartar. 152

Old Hendriki 152

Sword Orlanthi 152

Axe Orlanthi 152

Dark Orlanthi 152

Yelmalio. 152

Light Orlanthi 152

Composition of the Sartar Free Army. 152

Lunar Regimental Founders. 153

Fazzur Wideread, the Greatest General of Glorantha  153

The Seshnelan Army. 157

Codes of War. 158

Crusades. 158

Seshnelan Army List. 159

The Kralorelan Army. 160

Army and Navy Quality. 160

Military Terminology. 163

General 163

Armor. 164

Weapons. 165

16 minutes ago, Steve said:

Wow. What are you planning on doing with this when it's done, Martin? Are you going to publish it?

Hi Steve: probably not, there's quite a bit taken from copyright sources:

Sources

Primary Sources

·         The Guide to Glorantha

·         Sartar – Kingdom of Heroes

·         Sartar Companion

·         Pavis – Gateway to Adventure

·         Pavis boxed set

·         The Coming Storm

·         www.glorantha.com

·         Wyrms Footnotes

·         RuneQuest

·         HeroQuest Glorantha

·         King of Sartar

·         Dragon Pass board game

 

Secondary Sources

·         Cults of Prax

·         Griffin Mountain

·         Borderlands

·         RuneQuest Companion

·         Gods of Glorantha

·         River of Cradles

·         Sun County

·         Strangers in Prax

·         Shadows on the Borderland

 

The following were used to a lesser degree:

·         History of the Dara Happan Army

·         The Fortunate Succession

·         Esrolia: the Land of Ten Thousand Goddesses

·         Arcane Lore

·         Revealed Mythologies

However, there's also a very great deal of new material, relating to fortifications, logistics, magic use, etc. 

 

 

 

 

Quote

Thanks for your help in seemingly eliminating the east-southeastern route. I have the G2G and have read that but did not conclude it was the exclusive route. Now I may know better if I get an explicit conformation of the exclusivity of this one destination. I guess I was not clear in my previous posting - my apologies. Is that the only place that the Lunar caravans go? Do they penetrate further south into Kralorela itself?

The caravans seem to terminate there. Smaller parties might attempt to enter Kralorela, but whether they'd succeed is doubtful. The Guide says: As a result of these incursions, they consider all outsiders to be God Learners and deal severely with any intrusions into their realm. Since the Opening, they have kept almost everyone away. The only exception is through the city of Lur Nop.

Even entry at Lur Nop is restricted. Guide: Each barbarian nation has its own enclave, carefully overseen by the mandarins.

So even if they get to Lur Nop, the 'Barbarian Quarter' seems as far as they can get, without disguise and subterfuge.

18 minutes ago, metcalph said:

I doubt that Sheng shares your views on what is strategically or logistically sensible.  He conquered the Wastelands which are far more barren than the Elder Wilds.  What Sheng wants is not some penny-pinching accountant telling him what would be a wise use of his resources - he has a mountain of accountant skulls for that - but secrets that he could use against the Kralori.  Remote wastelands would be scouted because they are remote and likely to hold secrets.

Yet the population of griffins survived...

19 minutes ago, metcalph said:

The map that you refer to is dated 1450 ST, some 75 years after the Opili Tribe were badly mangled at the Battle of Quintus Vale.  The then Opili Khan may have simply decided that occupying the Citadels and other places then was not worthy of his time.

There's no indication the Opili ever occupied Balazar.

21 minutes ago, metcalph said:

Sheng had Lionbirds and used them to devour the Red Emperor. according to Tales #8 (a post-canonical gregly article).  I'm hence skeptical that he would be exterminating Griffins

Lionbirds probably aren't griffins. My source for Sheng exterminating griffins is an email by Greg Stafford, cited above.

The Guide says: Jangi-Shar (large city): This city is the terminus of the famous Etyries Caravan from the Lunar Empire and is an important trade center. Temples to foreign gods, devils, and antigods serve its large foreign population, largely Lunars and Pentans, but even dark trolls can be seen in the city. Maize is grown locally, having been introduced by Lunar missionaries almost a century ago.

1 hour ago, metcalph said:

The Opili Tribe settles in Garsting but fought at the battle of Quintus Vale (on the borders of Tarsh).  There's only two routes they could have gone and one of them has been blocked of by Jannisor over a century before.  

And if Sheng can't send a horde because of poor grazing then he would send one of his demigods to see what secrets the land was hiding.

The map in the Guide and Atlas excludes most of the Elder Wilds and Balazar from Sheng Seleris' empire (and there are still griffins there, but little to no mention of them in lowland Peloria). Given that there were far richer pickings elsewhere, there seems little reason to do more than briefly scout those regions, with a fair risk the scouts wouldn't come back. Sending a demigod into the wilderness doesn't seem strategically or logistically sensible.

In fact for the Elder Wilds there's the Uncommon Event: Griffins hunting horses; horsemen beware!

This threat is not mentioned elsewhere, but explains why Sheng attempted to exterminate them.

2 minutes ago, Jon Hunter said:

Page 142 of the guide, its on the border, so debatable. They have also had a few hundred years to repopulate also.

Checking using the Argan Argar Atlas, Griffin Mountain is well outside the border.

4 minutes ago, Jon Hunter said:

Make sense that the horselord Sheng depopulates Griffins, but the top of a mountain is a good place to go to survive.

True, but the population isn't large. Balazar and the Elder Wilds host numerous herd beasts, but not as many as there would have been in lowland Peloria. Griffins are literally apex predators, so their numbers are going to be relatively small in such a poor region.

In the treatise on Gloranthan warfare I'm putting together (160+ pages now...) the entry for Griffins reads:

Griffins: in ancient times the flying mounts of the worshippers of Yelm but are now rarely encountered as riding creatures. Sheng Seleris exterminated almost all of the griffins in Peloria.

The favorite mode of attack of griffins is a swoop down from above.

2 hours ago, Jon Hunter said:

Seeing as Griffin Mountain is in Peloria and shengs  sphere of influence he didn't do a good job.

His realm didn't extend far into Balazar or the Elder Wilds - poor grazing. The griffins there are a small relict population.

Searching for something else, I came across this snippet from Mr. Stafford, regarding griffins:

http://glorantha.temppeli.org/digest/gd8/2001.01/1793.html

It may no longer be canon, but it seems very possible that the reason worshippers of Yelm the Rider no longer ride griffins is that Sheng Seleris exterminated all of the griffins in Peloria. His intent might have been to weaken Galgarenge as an eater of horses, but it also removed the possibility of massed aerial cavalry.

1 hour ago, David Scott said:

The wicked writher is a sort of mythic event. I'm not sure of its exact mechanism at the moment. Fighting the wicked writher is different as the water goes the other way. My feeling is that it's a positive thing returning water to the wastes.  

The Writher does seem to be a good spirit in that it is forcing water out of Dead Bottom where it would otherwise be lost, but why does Waha fight it? The fight seems to be ongoing, with Bison Khans travelling to the Bison Khan and Rainman Grasslands to prove themselves khans.

3 hours ago, David Scott said:

In the Wastes it's Waha fighting the serpents thats normally causes them to change course to protect the grazing and herds.

Especially the Wicked Writher?

2 hours ago, David Scott said:

All water courses are shown solid even if seasonal.

How stable are the Serpents, Dave? Do they always follow the same beds?

Note: no impala in this line up; the horse is one of the larger breeds.

4 hours ago, g33k said:

Referring to the cover of "RoC" ...  as I surmised from the map, there is a hill in the corner of New Pavis that MAY be above the flood waters.  Remembering that there will be a major seasonal variation, I presume the image shown is NOT from a high-water time (normally towards the end of Storm Season, I presume?) -- this is a quiet, safe season on the Zola Fel.  The river probably hits bank-full (the point where the soldiers in the foreground are standing; and the base of the rocky hillock across the river) most years at least once, but the mythical flood we are discussing will be FAR above that!

Under normal conditions, in Sea Season, when it is at its greatest extent due to rainfall and snowmelt, the Zola Fel's main channel may be twelve metres deep and up to 400 metres wide. Judging from the illustration on the cover of River of Cradles, and allowing for perspective, this greatest extent won't reach the base of the walls of New Pavis. If it did, then the builders, dwarves who had lived there prior to the new city being founded, would not be very competent. In fact there's no sign of significant erosion above the road, so under normal circumstances, New Pavis won't flood.

It then depends on just how fast the ice melts at the end of Windstop, and how high the river becomes at New Pavis. As there's significant room for the waters to flood, after the Zola Fel meets the Fenwash, the waters may not be significantly higher at Pavis. As other major tributaries are south of Pavis, including the Stormwater and Scritha the worst is likely to occur south of the city, and severely flood the New Bog.

 

9 hours ago, jajagappa said:

This is one key point:  is there actually snow?  If there is, then there is water to melt.  If not, water is going to be very, very hard to come by.

I suspect it depends the altitude and temperature that moisture in the air is affected. There will probably be some snow, but not for long, and it's going to freeze solid on the ground in upland areas - which would be most of Sartar.

9 hours ago, jajagappa said:

Given no rain (unless the Bad Rains come?), I think they will not only dwindle but come to a stop, except perhaps for the Sky River (though I like the idea that it turns into or includes hail on the way down).

I imagine there will be flow, for a time, especially for rivers and tributaries fed by springs at low elevations.

9 hours ago, jajagappa said:

They actually have several years of grain supplies stored, so won't run out, but I'm sure rationing and hoarding will occur, prices will rise,and food riots are still likely

With the 'recent' political turmoil in Nochet some people are going to be more 'equal' than others in gaining access to the supplies?

9 hours ago, jajagappa said:

Outside the Esrolian cities, it'll be interesting to see how extensive the supplies are - anything really beyond Dark and Stormseasons?  By Seaseason, shortages should become commonplace and starvation by the start of Fireseason at the latest.

Up in Sartar, moving any load by track or road will be very difficult; in Esrolia not so hard?

8 hours ago, g33k said:

Depending on how high New Pavis sits -- and my understanding is, basically "on the banks of the Zola Fel" without any particular extra altitude (looking at the map, I see mostly straight roads crossing at right-angles, with little to no signs of any terrain; except in the northwest(?) corner, High St / Thane St / Tower Sq.) -- I would expect the entire city to be flooded.  Streets become canals; all ground-level rooms flooded; low-lying areas have entire buildings underwater, flooding possibly even up to the 2nd story.  Only the High St neighborhood, as noted, might have streets above the flood.

edit:  Ninja'ed AND Lhankor Mhy'ed by MOB!

As MOB has noted, it's some way above the normal waterline. There will be a serious flood at the north of Old Pass as the walls of the old city constrain and funnel the flow: a real maelstrom at the Lunar Bridge, and the waters might reach the eastern walls of New Pavis before subsiding.