My critique to push roll with simulated numbers.

[malkaviano]

Sup people, let me start with a basic disclaimer.

I never played CoC 7th or any other edition.

Since I read the push roll rule, I never made peace with it. But ok, this post is not about my personal opinion, but about some numbers I ran in simulation, 1 kk rolls per. (regular difficulty, no bonus, no penalty)

• Success Rate 79.2185% Skill pushing with 55%
• Success Rate 54.932% No Skill push with 55%
• Success Rate 49.4887%  Skill pushing with 30%
• Success Rate 29.980001% No Skill pushing with 30%

Gotta say, I was not expecting these, my first reaction to skill push was, "oh man, this is BS, who's gonna risk it?". But math does not lie, skill push is actually a positive gamble for the player. Ofc I'm not here to discuss the fact it must be justified and things gonna end bad, but considering CoC is always going to end bad, why not?

I still think this rule is terrible, it's too much subjective about "justifying" and "worse consequences", anyway just wanted to share, because I'm impressed how wrong I was in my first impression about it. It's actually "bad" for other reason.

[commandercrud]

12 minutes ago, malkaviano said:

I never played CoC 7th or any other edition.

Try playing the game before diving into deep analysis about why you think it's bad. It works great in practice at my table.

[greger]

I do not understand this post, at all.

[malkaviano]

2 hours ago, greger said:

I do not understand this post, at all.

Statistically a player should push the roll whenever he can.

[greger]

Sure, that's fine, but, I don't understand why this post was made?
That chances increase for succeeding on the whole action, by getting to roll again, isn't really surprising.

But chances of getting bad consequences also increase, so it will always have to be weighed against what the context is, and how much getting a positive outcome is worth.

 

[Epicyon]

18 hours ago, malkaviano said:

Statistically a player should push the roll whenever he can.

Try telling this to all of the investigators who died after failed pushed rolls! 😄

I think the mechanic is brilliant. It's one of the best changes the 7th edition brought. It keeps the story moving, because failing with nothing much happening gets you stuck easily! 😉

[Mugen]

On 2/10/2022 at 8:33 PM, malkaviano said:

Statistically a player should push the roll whenever he can.

So, it's not exactly a critique, but rather a praise. 🙂

[commandercrud]

My players agonize over choosing to push a roll because they know I'll bring the pain if they fail.

[Coolmew]

On 2/10/2022 at 2:33 PM, malkaviano said:

Statistically a player should push the roll whenever he can.

This assumes the cost of a failed pushed roll does not substantially outweigh the value of a successful roll.  Instead, the negative value of a fail is often relatively unknown and therefore not something that players can act upon with perfect information.  There is no dominant strategy due to a lack of ability to evaluate costs and benefits.  The odds are clear, but without a possible value for each option, there is no possible expected value calculation.  For example, imagine the following scenario.

Roll a 100 sided die.  If you roll a 50 or lower, you succeed, and you will be given an amount of money.  If you fail, you may either do nothing, and there will be no consequences, or you may roll again.  If you roll again and succeed, you will be given that same amount of money.  If you fail the second roll you will be forced to pay an amount of money.  Is rerolling a good deal?  The answer is that there is no way to know without defining the specific amounts. 

[malkaviano]

On 2/11/2022 at 5:05 PM, Mugen said:

So, it's not exactly a critique, but rather a praise. 🙂

A little out of context, no?

[klecser]

90% sure this person is deliberately trolling.

Claims to have never played the game and posts a statistical analysis of a mechanic out of the blue. Then argues on the utility of a mechanic that they have never experienced in game play? That's like saying: "I've never eaten at this restaurant, but based about what I know about chicken parm, you should always order the chicken parm here." Just...riddled with logical fallacies.

Role-playing IS subjective. The goal is to produce FUN.

I question the intentions of this poster.

Edited February 14, 2022 by klecser

[Grimmshade]

My critique to this post with simulated numbers:

10.956%

[Grimmshade]

In all seriousness, I hope this is a "joke" or troll topic, because the push mechanic is one of my (many) favorite things about this edition, and the original post makes no sense. (also, of course you have a better chance of success when rolling again, and you can't discuss the rule while leaving out the consequences which are the main part of the rule.)

Edited February 16, 2022 by Grimmshade

[DreadDomain]

On 2/11/2022 at 2:17 AM, malkaviano said:

I still think this rule is terrible, it's too much subjective about "justifying" and "worse consequences", anyway just wanted to share, because I'm impressed how wrong I was in my first impression about it. It's actually "bad" for other reason.

Obviously to each its own but I believe the push rolls mechanic does exactly what it is set out to do. Provide the investigators, and keeper, a way to further the story at the risk of potentially terrible consequences, which also further the story.

First, statistically push are increasing the chances to succeed. This is a feature, not a bug. The risk needs to be worth it! Second, the better you are at your skill, the more the odds are playing for you. This is another feature. Of course more capable investigators will have a better chance if they risk it.

The catch is the potential consequence. If you fail the push roll, what is the consequence? How will it hinder you? How will it make the story more interesting? I like when players and keepers collaborate on that part to make the outcome more exciting, more fun. If you can't come up with a consequence that makes the story better maybe the situation isn't adapted to a push roll. But with players and keeper together, there always a good idea to use. 

Edited February 18, 2022 by DreadDomain

[Ian Absentia]

The perennial RPG topic:  Do rules simulate real world dynamics, or the dynamics of story?  The Push roll is an example of the latter, and it does a pretty good job of it, as described in the OP.

The OP also states clearly that, having never played any edition of Call of Cthulhu, they have no dog in this fight, rendering the entire issue academic at best.  Thank you for stopping by.

!i!