Mass starvation and Our Heroes

[Ian_W]

The best thing about this edition of Runequest is that Our Heroes get integrated into the world by doing the stories of their grandparents, then their parents and then themselves.

And, if they start in Sartar or nearby, they are all going to share a very traumatic event that happened when they were a late teenager - those two years of winter in 1621 and 1622 when all the crops failed, at the same time as when all the magic of food and hearth failed because Ernalda was proclaimed dead.

This is put front and center in character generation.

Rules as written show a 45% chance one of Our Heroes parents either froze or starved to death.

Rules as written show a 45% chance of Our Heroes "nearly" freezing or starving to death, which pretty strongly implies that people they knew and loved did freeze or starve to death in this time.

Sartar got liberated by Kallyr in 1625, so this is all happening under Lunar Occupation.

Therefore, at this time, the Lunar Authorities are going to be tut-tutting at decisions that they were no part of, and making sure food aid gets to friendly tribes.

At this time, the Seven Mothers are going to be feeding anyone who will sit down and eat while the Red Goddess is being thanked for her bounty. Hon-eel's maize will still grow, by the way. Did your tribe eat the red grain ?

At this time, Bad Gods like Valind the North Wind are going to get worship. You will even see people who will not accept the public shame of treating with Chaos to be fed at the Seven Mothers temple treating privately with Chaos to make sure they, and perhaps their kin, survive.

But it's going to be a foundational event of Our Heroes, and the people that went through it will have a different view of gods, men and food to people who did not.

[M Helsdon]

9 minutes ago, Ian_W said:

 You will even see people who will not accept the public shame of treating with Chaos to be fed at the Seven Mothers temple treating privately with Chaos to make sure they, and perhaps their kin, survive.

Whilst not RGQ, the HQG The Coming Storm/Eleven Lights cover and explore events in the Great Winter, including this. The death rate is pretty severe, even among the 'Rich Tribe', and among Lunar-friendly tribes as well. Even Lunar garrisons suffer.

(Maize doesn't grow, at least is doesn't outside the Glowline during the Windstop.)

Edited June 20, 2018 by M Helsdon

[jajagappa]

4 hours ago, Ian_W said:

At this time, Bad Gods like Valind the North Wind are going to get worship.

If I recall, even other Storm Gods like Valind do not respond (and all winds die when reaching the Windstop).

But other Bad Gods likely will.

[Joerg]

5 hours ago, Ian_W said:

The best thing about this edition of Runequest is that Our Heroes get integrated into the world by doing the stories of their grandparents, then their parents and then themselves.

And, if they start in Sartar or nearby, they are all going to share a very traumatic event that happened when they were a late teenager - those two years of winter in 1621 and 1622 when all the crops failed, at the same time as when all the magic of food and hearth failed because Ernalda was proclaimed dead.

 

[...]

Therefore, at this time, the Lunar Authorities are going to be tut-tutting at decisions that they were no part of, and making sure food aid gets to friendly tribes.

This may be a thing of the past. When Tatius takes over Govenor-Generalship, the revanchist faction of the Dara Happans takes control in Sartar, and if those rebellious Orlanthi die by the droves, they'd probably sell tickets for their fellow nobles to watch. No more hearts and minds,

 

5 hours ago, Ian_W said:

At this time, the Seven Mothers are going to be feeding anyone who will sit down and eat while the Red Goddess is being thanked for her bounty. Hon-eel's maize will still grow, by the way. Did your tribe eat the red grain ?

If even the Lunar garrisons verge on starvation, will there be any grain to be spared for luke-warm sympathizers of the Lunar Way?

 

5 hours ago, Ian_W said:

At this time, Bad Gods like Valind the North Wind are going to get worship. You will even see people who will not accept the public shame of treating with Chaos to be fed at the Seven Mothers temple treating privately with Chaos to make sure they, and perhaps their kin, survive.

But it's going to be a foundational event of Our Heroes, and the people that went through it will have a different view of gods, men and food to people who did not.

It will be a time of "Secret Shame" (like in the Great Darkness) all over again. It will create another very dark smudge in the history abd on the honor of the clan.

Like for instance sudden sources for Long Pork cropping up despite no contacts with Praxians...

[Furry Fella]

The reference should be "mock pork". Bluntly cold and scurvy should be the primary issues. While wealth will plum new depths the cultures fixation with pastoralism should significantly stave things off. As described  the loss of a years crops while major should not on historical models (which would have much less safety built in) is not devastating. The disruption and migrating out (even if only shortish distances) when combined with popular hostility is what would largely bite the Lunars. In a pre modern world water is the only possible way of moving bulk food. So generally seeking "shelter" / assistance to the south even if basically in Brownian motion - Boldhome to Karse is what 100 miles. All study of even quite widespread medieval famine (because we have written records - church registers) shows that a good 50% of the loss is people who move out and then move back.

[Ian_W]

7 hours ago, Joerg said:

This may be a thing of the past. When Tatius takes over Govenor-Generalship, the revanchist faction of the Dara Happans takes control in Sartar, and if those rebellious Orlanthi die by the droves, they'd probably sell tickets for their fellow nobles to watch. No more hearts and minds,

 

If even the Lunar garrisons verge on starvation, will there be any grain to be spared for luke-warm sympathizers of the Lunar Way?

 

It depends how much they are paying, really.

[Joerg]

4 minutes ago, Ian_W said:

7 hours ago, Joerg said:

This may be a thing of the past. When Tatius takes over Govenor-Generalship, the revanchist faction of the Dara Happans takes control in Sartar, and if those rebellious Orlanthi die by the droves, they'd probably sell tickets for their fellow nobles to watch. No more hearts and minds,

If even the Lunar garrisons verge on starvation, will there be any grain to be spared for luke-warm sympathizers of the Lunar Way?

It depends how much they are paying, really.

Good point, but how much wealth do you expect them to have this late in the occupation? There are a few profiteer tribes among the Quivini, according to Sartar Rising, but even the Balmyr will have been taxed off their riches.

[Furry Fella]

Actually it doesn't really matter. Shifting bulk food like grain other than by water just doesn't work short of railways. The Urban populations and thus the Garrisons will suffer much the worst of it. There is really quite a lot of study looking at famines and irrespective of the initiating cause that's what this event reflects as. Some locations will be catestrophically effected, the great bulk will suffer real hardship but much less than the suggestion in the tables and a substatial number will suffer or move or both but it will be hard not disasterous. The closer a population is to navigable water the easier and better it will be. The really big hit will be to clan wealth. If the situation was followed by another year then yes dramatic real population loss and widespread to starts to be outcome. Famine or significant crop loss reduction is such a really common event that populations (except in the worst of times) are generally well prepared. The big killers are sudden multiple year failures after sustained reliable growth - those create collapse events. Real wealth in these societies is in cattle or livestock etc. Those things largely cannot be drastically affected by occupiers unless the sudden appearance of a people less wilderness is their immediate intent. This rather stuffs occupying the place.

Looking at the Gloranthan guide Volume 1 (both parts) gives Sartar less than 150K pop for more than 25,000 square miles. The southern part is close to water and so resupply and relocation is fairly straight forward. The whole eastern part has the relief of the mitigating climate of the Prax - plus a food source (for metal) plus limited relocation. This is an area where I will be tweaking things depending on tribe. In an odd way the harsh winter conditions favour the locals retaining their suplies and previous surpluses. As adapted to this environment things favour them. A 45% chance of the whole family loosing someone yes. Please do remember that with the inherent disadvantages of terrestrial history even the Black Death didn't get 50% of the population of Europe and much modern scholarship indicates much close to 30% is the likely result. Human populations are actually really hard to kill in large areas. As a comparison Serbia in WWI suffered an occupation the seized more than 75% of the food produced, deported forced larbour, plundered and looted and worse at any excuse and suffered multi year epidemics of typhus, cholera and a couple of other diseases with only local herbalism to teat it (the medicines were generally seized by the Bulgarians and Hungarians) the loss as devastating as it was is generally put at 12% (10% to 15% being the credible limits of population studies) short of organised massed executions of thousands this was genocide that lasted for 3 years.

[Ian_W]

19 minutes ago, Furry Fella said:

Actually it doesn't really matter. Shifting bulk food like grain other than by water just doesn't work short of railways.

Unless you have famine and the price of food goes up by a factor of between five and ten. As a side point, I wouldnt try and use water transport while the rivers in Sartar are frozen

The key with the Fimbulwinter and the Lunar Army of Occupation is that it does not affect within the Glowline, and food supplies within the Lunar Empire are still plentiful (note Esrolia is short of food as well, because p39 gives them 25% Nearly Starved To Death, probably on account of Ernalda joining Orlanth as victims of Lunar magic).

Per this, http://agriculture.vic.gov.au/agriculture/livestock/horses/feed-requirements-of-horses

We can assume 10kg of feed per horse per day. Therefore, a 4 horse team needs 40kg of feed per day, and can be staged outward. It'll take work but, importantly, the Lunar Empire knew the Winter is going to happen and can plan appropriately, so only the Sartarites get to starve.

Nope. If the Lunar Army in Sartar starved, it's because it's officers and/or supply officers sold their food on the black market.

[Furry Fella]

32 minutes ago, Ian_W said:

Unless you have famine and the price of food goes up by a factor of between five and ten. As a side point, I wouldnt try and use water transport while the rivers in Sartar are frozen

The key with the Fimbulwinter and the Lunar Army of Occupation is that it does not affect within the Glowline, and food supplies within the Lunar Empire are still plentiful (note Esrolia is short of food as well, because p39 gives them 25% Nearly Starved To Death, probably on account of Ernalda joining Orlanth as victims of Lunar magic).

Per this, http://agriculture.vic.gov.au/agriculture/livestock/horses/feed-requirements-of-horses

We can assume 10kg of feed per horse per day. Therefore, a 4 horse team needs 40kg of feed per day, and can be staged outward. It'll take work but, importantly, the Lunar Empire knew the Winter is going to happen and can plan appropriately, so only the Sartarites get to starve.

Nope. If the Lunar Army in Sartar starved, it's because it's officers and/or supply officers sold their food on the black market.

The theory looks good the practical reality is much much worse. Pre railways there is just 1 known example of a significant stationary army not facing starvation if it was any distance from water - "the Sileasian Potato War" - part of Frederick the Greats Austrian wars. Called this as "discovery" of locally planted potato crops was the only thing stopping the Prussian army disintegrating. Despite having shorter lines of supply this broke down for the Prussians relatively quickly. The Austrians had further but only a little over 100km and barely managed it. The loss for traction feed is both ways. For Sartar the distances back into the  Glow line are much further (looks like either 200 miles to 300 miles depending on the route) through "friendly territory that is also suffering and much mote densely populated at approx 360K for a smaller area. The routes are long as clearly they can't go via Wintertop or Shaker Temple. If they expected it then with several years preparation then if the discipline was kept mostly they could ride it out. Here is where co-rruption will likely get them badly and really very likely where / How the Orlanthi Hero Questers found out what the plan was.

The only other good examples of long distance famine relief / supply not by water and pre modern are the Incas - there the key difference is three fold. Firstly the transport wasn't coming back (it was Lamas and made up 40%+ of the food). Secondly well feed Lamas can go days to even weeks on very little and very poor fodder. Even the Incas did it the sensible way took in food and took out people doing as much as possible by shuttle routes that were fairly short.

Any spare capacity the Lunars might have had gets throughly chewed up trying to supply the thousands static in crap conditions at their new temple and ritual site.

Note their officers and NCO's - at least some of them will also have sold food on the black market to the "urban" populations getting the real worst of it.

Spot hardship caused by dislocation due to war - especially civil war is common and generally localised - very bad for some 10's of square miles around the various "peak" disruptions but again the data from the 30 years war is the bulk of it is hardship, loss of wealth and forced relocation. It used to be thought that the 30 years war had depopulated significant parts of the Germanies by up to 2/3rds the reality was being identified 30 years ago. The very great majority of those people didn't die they moved away.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Furry Fella

[Atgxtg]

14 minutes ago, Ian_W said:

Unless you have famine and the price of food goes up by a factor of between five and ten.

It's not about price, but about how much food you can transport how far. Past a certain point, your cart animals will eat more food than they can pull. 

A 500kg ox can pull a load of about 750kg, and probably eats about 15 kg a day. Now wheels help, but the ox still has to pull his own food, the cart, a driver and his gear and food, along with whatever cargo is on the cart. This over unpaved and poor quality roads. Historically , you just couldn't travel to far and most cities were within a day or so of the farms.

With a bad harvest, there probably ins't any food to transport either. In pre-industrial times, it took about 10 people working the fields to feed 11 people. So even a modest dip in the harvest could lead to famine. If they got a bad harvest, say 70% of normal, then they are going to be short that much food, and there won't be enough to feed the 10% that don't work the fields-and that means tradesmen. It's even worse for them because the rulers and thier troops (also part of that 10%) will tax/confiscate/steal whatever they need leaving even less for everyone else. 

[Furry Fella]

19 minutes ago, Atgxtg said:

It's not about price, but about how much food you can transport how far. Past a certain point, your cart animals will eat more food than they can pull. 

A 500kg ox can pull a load of about 750kg, and probably eats about 15 kg a day. Now wheels help, but the ox still has to pull his own food, the cart, a driver and his gear and food, along with whatever cargo is on the cart. This over unpaved and poor quality roads. Historically , you just couldn't travel to far and most cities were within a day or so of the farms.

With a bad harvest, there probably ins't any food to transport either. In pre-industrial times, it took about 10 people working the fields to feed 11 people. So even a modest dip in the harvest could lead to famine. If they got a bad harvest, say 70% of normal, then they are going to be short that much food, and there won't be enough to feed the 10% that don't work the fields-and that means tradesmen. It's even worse for them because the rulers and thier troops (also part of that 10%) will tax/confiscate/steal whatever they need leaving even less for everyone else. 

Hence the importance of water. Even a small ship is 100+ tons with only a little wastage and food for perhaps 6 people. The continuous winter just makes transport even more improbable. The SNAFU for the Lunars is it makes extortion expeditions so much less effective and shorter ranged. Sartarite "cities" are all (even Boldhome) well below the supplied from 1 max 2 days away size.

With magic and other things the Gloranthan world is much better at surplus generation - Bless Crops, Bless Herds, Cloud Call, Cloud Clear, Rain etc. Magic also inceases the feasible storage and sharply lessens waste. While the magic failed for 1622 it is 1 failure.  Serious famine for many - quite likely,  population collapse not even close. Here the serious disruption due to elongated winter acts as either a benefit or a double penalty. If your are in trouble help is less likely and moving is worse. If your almost ok then issolation is good.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Furry Fella

[Ian_W]

13 minutes ago, Atgxtg said:

It's not about price, but about how much food you can transport how far. Past a certain point, your cart animals will eat more food than they can pull. 

 

Again, I'm not talking about why the Sartarites are in trouble and will face mass starvation, I'm talking about the Lunar army who

 

(a) know this is going to happen,

(b) have a not-in-famine food supply in Tarsh,

(c) will probably need to suppress a desperate revolt sometime in the near future, and

(d) have access to magic that doesnt care that Orlanth and Ernalda are dead.

They've also got access to a bunch of specialised anti-winter magics through Kalikos Icebreaker who - again - is not affected by Orlanth being dead.

Now, that said ...

I think it's a pretty good story for 'How did our tribe survive ? We bribed a Lunar supply officer, and stole food meant for the soldiers'.

[Hteph]

As Furry Fella says, the locals won't go extinct for missing out on two harvests, one of the main reason for this is the agricultural order (western european IRL) that the Sartarites have. They will eat their animals and the woods are full of stuff that are no fun at all but can (and will) be eaten. Two years will cost lives and have long lasting effects; the animals that where eaten, especially the cows, are very important for a healthy crop in the long view. A lot of seed will be gone and that will be even worse to replace. But most people in the age range of about 5 to 40 will survive, outside that barcket .... well that depends on how good health care that is around.

The Lunars are a totally different cake as Ian_W says, when there is no grain to steal ... it will be though....

[Joerg]

Although this thread was triggered by the previous experience tables in RQG, this discussion would be better placed in the Glorantha forum as it has no further rules connection.

 

1 hour ago, Furry Fella said:

Actually it doesn't really matter. Shifting bulk food like grain other than by water just doesn't work short of railways.

Modern standard roads like the royal highways in Sartar are the next best thing, extending a day's march to a multiple of the distance in rural conditions. A staggered set of army depots can be maintained overland.

1 hour ago, Furry Fella said:

The Urban populations and thus the Garrisons will suffer much the worst of it.

The cities and garrisons enter the Windtstop quite well prepared - by Dark Season the harvest has been collected, the cities' share has been delivered to the city granariaries, legumes will have been put into earth bunkers with straw covering, and hay will have been collected as beast fodder. These resources are calculated to last into Sea Season for rural conditions, but cities and garrisons need to prepare until Fire Season, after the work on the fields has been done, for the rural population to find time to bring new fodder. While there will be paddocks or even some pasture for urban livestock, they will rely on hay and grain a lot more than livestock in rural conditions.

The grain reserves are calculated to last until next harvest. There is a huge amount of spoilage due to vermin or mold, but that is to be expected.

In some way, the Fimbulwinter might even reduce the spoilage. If no new births are possible, the mice and rats will die out quite quickly under the continued pressure by their feline predators. Molds are a form of Darkness that thrives on death and stagnation, and would be exempt from "nothing grows", but even in Glorantha molds require some warmth and humidity (probably feed on it), and the Fimbulwinter deprives them of either.

Famine will strike in Sea Season, when the livestock runs out of fodder and when the stored legumes run out. No births means no eggs, and at the time a cow runs dry, no more milk. Farmers being pragmatic, the amount of livestock will be culled, providing meat rather than the "regenerative" products of the beasts. As a result, clan wealth goes down, but fodder lasts longer.

Scurvy won't strike before Sea Season, either - the region is known for its orchards, so apples will have been stored, and usually last until Sea Season before the rising temperatures encourage spoilage. Only the temperatures don't rise, so less spoilage.

By fire season, the livestock is starving. Even with cullings, the hay and straw will be used up.

There is a very important question whether the Orlanthi use winter cereals. In regions with short and rather unreliable summers, winter cereals are sown after the ploughing after the harvest, and will already look like a meadow by the time the first regular snow falls - which is about the time of the Fall of Whitewall. This is important with regard to the question how much seed grain is available.

There are numbers for medieval harvests that indicate that 50-80% of a harvest would be used as seed grain. (I have numbers for northern Norway that show that harvests could yield less than the amount sown, but that those amounts still were preferable to the loss due to spoilage and vermin.)

All original cereal types in "hill" farming were winter cereals, with enough of the ripe seed growing into the next year's plant before winter (or drought) strikes. Our world's domesticated Einkorn comes from Anatolia, and southern Anatolia gets real winters. Egyptian climate and irrigation did not have winters and practiced the sowing of cereals in spring.

There are breeds of barley which allow spring sowing even for short summers, and those are used to determine the border of agricultural feasibility. From the natural life cycle of einkorn, I would expect neolithic farming to have started with winter cereals, and Bronze Age farming with cultivates of those neolithic cereals to have kept that practice.

 

The real problem with famine will be the winter of 1622/1623, with no harvests (other than hay) brought in. But by this time, the waterways are available again, and people have time to travel to places that can receive overseas deliveries of rice, or into Lunar Tarsh.

 

If the farmers in the Dragon Pass region have sown winter cereal, most of that will start growing after the late thawing started by the Battle of Aurochs Hills. Prudent farmers will make hay of that year's belated growth, postponing the growth of fruit (and terminal exhaustion of the plant) for another year.

 

1 hour ago, Furry Fella said:

There is really quite a lot of study looking at famines and irrespective of the initiating cause that's what this event reflects as. Some locations will be catestrophically effected, the great bulk will suffer real hardship but much less than the suggestion in the tables and a substatial number will suffer or move or both but it will be hard not disasterous.

The Windstop event is comparable to the "nuclear summers" following major volcanic eruptions, a blanket effect with no exceptions inside the affected area. People living on the border of the effect will be able to go beyond that border and compete with the populations there for pasture and land for spring-sown cereal. But that is restricted to the bits of Lunar Tarsh, Aggar and Holay outside of the Glowline.

The Vendref of the Grazelands don't get to leave their lands. Their pure horse overlords will suffer least of all human populations in Dragon Pass, as horses can survive in the wild in the coldest parts of Siberia.

 

 

[Furry Fella]

 Joerg nice looking arguement , I agree the bite would come 1622/23 and a failed crop then would be seriously bad. 

Can I point you to Martin Van Crevald "Supplying War". Your depot approach simply doesn't work over even a minor fraction of the distance required. As a point at about 400 km the famous US Red Ball Express of WWII was delivering only 5% of the load of a 3 tonne truck to the end of the run. Even WWII trucks (on nice pave roads) are vastly superior to animal traction. This is what stuffs the Garrisons.

Thing is Sartar has a really low population density, this elongates the surviveability of the livestock as do proper non modern agricultural technichques such as tree hay. The livestock we are referring to are actually tougher than the horses and survive better on much crappier forage. It is a matter of looking at much older breeds of live stock. Even modern Highland Short Horn Cattle (who are much more pampered and many generations from their base stock) are almost as tough as Siberian ponies. The base stock was comfortably farmed on the Shetlands and Orkneys just after the last Iceage. Most of this sort of stock can survive on reeds and even feed adequately in the woods.

As a note general evidence and experimental archaeology suggests hunter gathers can survive well at densities as high as  2 or 3 per square mile. Sartar population given in the guides is less than 6 per square mile.

I've yet to find a pre modern society where rural populations didn't both eat better and "conceal" major reserves than / from their "urban" brethren. The more decentralised the society the greater this effect is. It was quite common for pre modern farming communities to carry more than a years worth of reserves. On spoilage actually Bronze and early Iron age storage is better here than later medieval techniques. The seal pits rapidly become anoxic so toxic to what causes spoilage and the edge loss actually poisons vermin to. The use of major graneries etc is not good storage but it is good control. Wastage in towns and garrisons will be higher. The alternatives from return to gathering are not available

While the best evidence is 15th century or later due to there being more written records it normally takes 2 complete failures of 3 to 5 years of bad harvests for things to get bad. This is an area where the loss of vermin may actually be felt - yep rats get eaten as do mice and dead birds eta al. Onions survive in the ground well and even better in dry cold. That the great bulk of ancient vegetables are brassicas is also an advantage. About twice the weight of vegetable can be beneficially consumed under hardship than was historically true in good times. The stems etc have a biter taste but still provide good nutrition. Push come to shove the pea plants can be eaten - not appetising but close to ok for nutrition. Certainly such vegetable dross makes good stock feed.

Loss for spoilage and vermin is only a problem after1622 failure as the magic is already in place and Bless crops drastically reduces both spoilage and vermin - yes this requires looking at the previous editions descriptions but the structure applies. Then as you suggest a good extended hard freeze provides a lot of relief as there is not spring melt and damp nor a spring explosion for vermin. .

The moveable people include all those to the east and south of Sartar to. This movement opens / eases options and pressures to. While the edges of the Prax close to Sartar are good for pastoralism they can be cropped. even moving the herds though would add a big gain.

I understand the point re the magical effect like a volcanic winter as an area effect but all those sorts of things are much more complex with micro climates etc. That is the variation in impact I was alluding to. The big problem with this analogue is the acid poison effect of the volcanic winter effect, plus the much greater and persistent wet / damp. This would not be present and it is now regarded as likely more damaging than the cold - certainly it is so with the trees and like vegetation.

In the end I expect there is no "final answer". My query still comes down to this a population loss in the short term of less than 30% is  linked to complete population collapse because the society ceases to function and collapses first. With its relatively short duration the Windstop event just dosen't give the sustained disruption  to even come close to this sort of impact. Even the collapse of the end of the Old Kingdom in Egypt takes years of successive worse failures of the Nile floods and associated droughts.

[MOB]

On 6/23/2018 at 3:08 PM, Ian_W said:

Again, I'm not talking about why the Sartarites are in trouble and will face mass starvation, I'm talking about the Lunar army who

(a) know this is going to happen,

I suspect the unintended consequences of the Windstop were just as much a surprise to the Lunars as the locals.

 

 

[M Helsdon]

On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 7:12 AM, Joerg said:

A staggered set of army depots can be maintained overland.

And indeed, most ancient armies did this, with the Assyrians possibly the first we have evidence for (and their system, including their postal system, was inherited by the Medes, Persians and Macedonians, to a degree). However, the further away from the source of supply you get, the more difficult it becomes to project such a system forwards. This meant that almost all ancient armies of a comparable period, could only do 'great raids' a limited distance into hostile territory, unless they were guaranteed capturing the hostile granaries (and the Assyrians often did this).

Projecting such a system onto the Lunar Army, I came up with: 

Logistics: Lunar Army The Lunar Empire’s aggressive and highly successful war-making is made possible not just by its massive reserves of manpower, but its ability to supply armies campaigning great distances away from lowland Peloria. The Oslir River has been an important strategic conduit to the south for Lunar culture, trade and military expansion. However, Dragon Pass marks the continental divide, in a narrow valley near Mount Kero Fin. The Oslir river is navigable as far south as Furthest; above that, cataracts and cascades require portage. Lunar logistics can rely upon the river, unloading at Furthest. As greater loads can be carried by barge than by road, it marks the point where military forces can be easily supplied. Beyond this point, roads are the only means of projecting the military capabilities of the Lunar Army and especially the supply lines upon which it depends. Lunar campaigns in the south have been affected by the requirements of logistics and the need to create local supply depots, which in turn must be guarded by troops requiring supply. The Lunar Army employs three types of base: Strategic, Operational, and Tactical. Strategic bases are found in the area producing the food to be used by the army, acting as collection points, often in a province some distance from the theater of operations. Operational bases are often river ports in the area or province adjoining where the war is being fought, locations providing massive storage facilities including granaries and arsenals, where supplies can be accumulated and sent forward. Tactical bases are set up close to where the army is fighting to provide for its immediate needs, and to maintain control of defeated populations. Tactical and Operational bases are often connected by a string of fortified depots to ease the passage of supply caravans. The expansion beyond Sartar stretched these supply lines, with the conquest of Prax and invasions of the Holy Country at the very limits of Lunar power. Victory required overwhelming force, which could not be sustained indefinitely.

 

Note that beyond the Oslir, which permits the equivalent of sea transport, things become very much more difficult. The practicalities of projecting supply over distances are limited, as a supply column will consume the supplies it carries. If there is too great a distance between depots and garrisons and armies in the field, then supply lines become over-stretched. It is increasingly impractical, though not impossible, to project food and materiel by more than four-day’s journey overland (roughly 96 km) under good conditions with good roads. Greater distances require even greater logistical organization.

 

When you consider that the materiel required to be transported isn't just food, but other necessities such as firewood, salt, new boots (there's evidence that a Roman soldier got through roughly three pairs of boots a year), weapons, clothes etc. relying upon supply caravans to send food and materiel forward any distance becomes very suspect. Add in the bad weather conditions of the Windstop (ice, snow, severe cold sufficient to bring Ice Demons down into the valleys of Sartar), and the maintenance of a string of supply depots becomes impossible, as food and fodder is going to be eaten by the supply caravans and supply depots before it gets very far. 

 

When a Lunar garrison runs out of its own supplies, and has seized supplies from the surrounding area (a relatively small area), the soldiers are going to be in as bad a state as the locals.

 

Edited June 25, 2018 by M Helsdon

[PhilHibbs]

No mention of moonboats, I guess there are too few to make a difference.

[Ian_W]

1 hour ago, PhilHibbs said:

No mention of moonboats, I guess there are too few to make a difference.

Back of the envelope numbers here.

Assume an isolated garrison of 100 troops, and a Moonboat can carry 1 ton.

Therefore, thats 10 kilos per man. Assuming something high density, thats maybe a month worth of soup.

 

[Darius West]

15 hours ago, PhilHibbs said:

No mention of moonboats, I guess there are too few to make a difference.

I could see the situation where moonboats are tooled up into grain barges becoming a distinct possibility.  It is quite possible that moonboats may be used to evacuate garrisons that are too far from supply as well.

It is worth pointing out that Pavis' Sacred Time hero quest to gain food from the underworld via the Puzzle Canal may become important.

I would also point out that herder cultures will be less affected than grain cultures by the Windstop, as they may (reluctantly) slaughter and preserve meat animals that they can no longer graze.  

I wonder how many people will be cast into the arms of Malia and Cacodemon by the Windstop?

[Joerg]

50 minutes ago, Darius West said:

I could see the situation where moonboats are tooled up into grain barges becoming a distinct possibility.  It is quite possible that moonboats may be used to evacuate garrisons that are too far from supply as well.

 

Moonboats can operate at a good rate only three days in a week, and creep along for two more days before having to stop for two days during the Dark phases of the moon. (Talking about travel outside the Glowline, here). A trip to Pavis would mean a two day downtime there. The new Lunar Temple and back might be manageable inside those five days from Bagnot or Goldedge, and the run to and from Furthest in those two days of Dark Moon. Karse could be reached likewise, or could rely on oared transport from outside the effect.

Refuge or even Corflu might become a major trans-shipping port between cargo ships from Melib and sub-strength naval galleys serving as transports inside the Windstop, or full-strength ones serving as tug to the transshipping port.

The Wolf Pirate threat is pleasantly low as Harrek has led most of them away on his circumnavigation.

50 minutes ago, Darius West said:

I would also point out that herder cultures will be less affected than grain cultures by the Windstop, as they may (reluctantly) slaughter and preserve meat animals that they can no longer graze.  

Herder cultures may be even harder hit when their herds don't find their fodder any more, and the milk dries up as no new calves are born.

I do wonder what happens to prgnancies under the way when Whitewall fell. All stillbirths?

 

50 minutes ago, Darius West said:

I wonder how many people will be cast into the arms of Malia and Cacodemon by the Windstop?

Malia doesn't look that helpful in this situation - freezing to death is not a disease. Cacodemon on the other hand does seem to offer acccess to a lot of meat, but it is supposed to be from a fresh kill, I think. Old Brangbane, formerly of the Dinacoli, might be able to serve bigger feasts on all those who already succumbed to exposition to the cold. His ghouls certainly have a field day as earth burials become all but impossible while cremations use up valuable firewood that could keep people alive otherwise.

Speaking of fire during the Windstop, I wonder how people benefit from releasing Oakfed. It's not like a forest fire provides much heat to a settlement.

[M Helsdon]

23 hours ago, PhilHibbs said:

No mention of moonboats, I guess there are too few to make a difference.

Flying them beyond the Glowline is always problematic. As high value and relatively rare vehicles, they are unlikely to be risked within the Windstop unless someone of very high status needs to be fed/extracted.

Edited June 27, 2018 by M Helsdon

[Joerg]

1 hour ago, M Helsdon said:

Flying them beyond the Glowline is always problematic. As high value and relatively rare vehicles, they are unlikely to be risked within the Windstop unless someone of very high status needs to be fed/extracted.

I can think of one such group - the priests working on the New Lunar Temple. And given Tatius position both as governor-general and dean of the imperial college, I wager he can command the services of two moonboats for this purpose.

[M Helsdon]

1 hour ago, Joerg said:

I can think of one such group - the priests working on the New Lunar Temple. And given Tatius position both as governor-general and dean of the imperial college, I wager he can command the services of two moonboats for this purpose.

Yes, that's what occurred to me when I wrote that. However, even if the elite at the New Lunar Temple are fed, the garrisons out in the towns and cities will have to fend for themselves.